Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)


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Your use of the site and services is subject to these policies and terms. Series description. How do series work? Helpers rgurskey , frogman54 5 , BogAl 2 , alco 1 , AnnaClaire 1. Analysis of Variance by Gudmund R. Causal Modeling by Herbert B. Tests of Significance by Ramon E. Cohort Analysis by Norval D. Analysis of Nominal Data by H. Analysis of Ordinal Data by David K. Charles W. Ecological Inference by Laura Irwin Langbein. Multidimensional Scaling by Joseph B. Analysis of Covariance by Albert R. Multiple indicators : an introduction by John L.

Exploratory Data Analysis by Frederick Hartwig. Reliability and Validity Assessment by Edward G. Analyzing Panel Data by Gregory B. Discernment Analysis by William R. Log-Linear Models by David Knoke. Research Designs by Paul E. How can it be measured? How are the models estimated? What is catastrophe? How is it modeled? Beginning with an explanation of the differences between deterministic and probabilistic models, Brown introduces the reader to chaotic dynamics.

Other topics covered are finding settings in which chaos can be measured, estimating chaos using nonlinear least squares, and specifying catastrophe models. Finally, the author estimates a nonlinear system of equations that models catastrophe using real survey data. Researchers wanting to understand and make use of this exciting new direction in social measurement and modeling will find this book an excellent and cogent introduction.

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A Brief Biography. Small differences in initial conditions, such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation, yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction of their behavior impossible in general. The theory was summarized by Edward Lorenz as: [7]. Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. Chaotic behavior exists in many natural systems, such as weather and climate.

Chaos theory has applications in a variety of disciplines, including meteorology , anthropology, [11] sociology , physics , [12] environmental science , computer science , engineering , economics , biology , ecology , and philosophy. The theory formed the basis for such fields of study as complex dynamical systems , edge of chaos theory, and self-assembly processes.

Chaos theory concerns deterministic systems whose behavior can in principle be predicted. Chaotic systems are predictable for a while and then 'appear' to become random.


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Some examples of Lyapunov times are: chaotic electrical circuits, about 1 millisecond; weather systems, a few days unproven ; the inner solar system, 4 to 5 million years. Hence, mathematically, doubling the forecast time more than squares the proportional uncertainty in the forecast. This means, in practice, a meaningful prediction cannot be made over an interval of more than two or three times the Lyapunov time. When meaningful predictions cannot be made, the system appears random. In common usage, "chaos" means "a state of disorder".

Although no universally accepted mathematical definition of chaos exists, a commonly used definition originally formulated by Robert L. Devaney says that, to classify a dynamical system as chaotic, it must have these properties: [16]. In some cases, the last two properties in the above have been shown to actually imply sensitivity to initial conditions.

If attention is restricted to intervals , the second property implies the other two. In continuous time dynamical systems, chaos is the phenomenon of the spontaneous breakdown of topological supersymmetry, which is an intrinsic property of evolution operators of all stochastic and deterministic partial differential equations. Within this picture, the long-range dynamical behavior associated with chaotic dynamics, e. Sensitivity to initial conditions means that each point in a chaotic system is arbitrarily closely approximated by other points with significantly different future paths, or trajectories.

Thus, an arbitrarily small change, or perturbation, of the current trajectory may lead to significantly different future behavior. Sensitivity to initial conditions is popularly known as the " butterfly effect ", so-called because of the title of a paper given by Edward Lorenz in to the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events that prevents the predictability of large-scale phenomena.

Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the overall system would have been vastly different. A consequence of sensitivity to initial conditions is that if we start with a limited amount of information about the system as is usually the case in practice , then beyond a certain time the system is no longer predictable. This is most prevalent in the case of weather, which is generally predictable only about a week ahead. In more mathematical terms, the Lyapunov exponent measures the sensitivity to initial conditions.

The rate of separation depends on the orientation of the initial separation vector, so a whole spectrum of Lyapunov exponents exist. The number of Lyapunov exponents is equal to the number of dimensions of the phase space, though it is common to just refer to the largest one. For example, the maximal Lyapunov exponent MLE is most often used because it determines the overall predictability of the system.

A positive MLE is usually taken as an indication that the system is chaotic. Also, other properties relate to sensitivity of initial conditions, such as measure-theoretical mixing as discussed in ergodic theory and properties of a K-system. A chaotic system may have sequences of values for the evolving variable that exactly repeat themselves, giving periodic behavior starting from any point in that sequence. However, such periodic sequences are repelling rather than attracting, meaning that if the evolving variable is outside the sequence, however close, it will not enter the sequence and in fact will diverge from it.

Thus for almost all initial conditions, the variable evolves chaotically with non-periodic behavior. Topological mixing or the weaker condition of topological transitivity means that the system evolves over time so that any given region or open set of its phase space eventually overlaps with any other given region. This mathematical concept of "mixing" corresponds to the standard intuition, and the mixing of colored dyes or fluids is an example of a chaotic system. Topological mixing is often omitted from popular accounts of chaos, which equate chaos with only sensitivity to initial conditions.

However, sensitive dependence on initial conditions alone does not give chaos. For example, consider the simple dynamical system produced by repeatedly doubling an initial value. This system has sensitive dependence on initial conditions everywhere, since any pair of nearby points eventually becomes widely separated. However, this example has no topological mixing, and therefore has no chaos.

see

Smith: Social Structures and Chaos Theory

Indeed, it has extremely simple behavior: all points except 0 tend to positive or negative infinity. For a chaotic system to have dense periodic orbits means that every point in the space is approached arbitrarily closely by periodic orbits.

Introduction to Nonlinear dynamics: The case of Catastrophe theory by Vishwesha Guttal

Sharkovskii's theorem is the basis of the Li and Yorke [26] proof that any continuous one-dimensional system that exhibits a regular cycle of period three will also display regular cycles of every other length, as well as completely chaotic orbits. The cases of most interest arise when the chaotic behavior takes place on an attractor , since then a large set of initial conditions leads to orbits that converge to this chaotic region.

An easy way to visualize a chaotic attractor is to start with a point in the basin of attraction of the attractor, and then simply plot its subsequent orbit. Because of the topological transitivity condition, this is likely to produce a picture of the entire final attractor, and indeed both orbits shown in the figure on the right give a picture of the general shape of the Lorenz attractor. This attractor results from a simple three-dimensional model of the Lorenz weather system.

Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences) Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)
Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences) Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)
Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences) Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)
Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences) Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)
Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences) Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)
Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences) Chaos and Catastrophe Theories (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)

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